Friday, August 29, 2008

Home Builder Calling

I am getting calls now, that just a few short years ago, I would have told you I would never receive.

Builders are calling, developers are calling, and they are looking for money. These builders and developers just a couple of years ago would not talk with me. They would not take my calls. They did not need our money. However, times change, and it has changed greatly.

Builders cannot find money to build spec homes. Developers are wanted to sell home sites so they are trying to help. Developers are calling to see if we still loan on spec homes. These developers are willing to helping in the financing, putting their money and credit on the line.

What does this all mean? I believe this will seriously limit new construction and help eliminate the excess home inventory that exist today. It means that the real estate market will improve as home inventories decline.

Keep a positive outlook we are working our way out of the housing and mortgage crisis.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Where have Zero down mortgage's gone

It’s 2004, everyone want’s to buy a home and no one want’s to put a dime down. It doesn’t matter if it is a $50,000 home or a $5,000,000 mansion, zero down was the down payment of choice.

Fast forward to August 2008. It requires 3% down on FHA, 5% on conventional financing, and on Jumbo loans (loans above the conventional limit) you may be require to have 30% down. The only zero down program available today is VA. We still have prospect hoping for zero down but if they are not a veteran they are out of luck.

Zero down has gone the way of the punch cards for computers.

My advice in today’s market; if you want to buy a home you need to save the down payment.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Rates will go up and they will go down

“Rick what do you think rates are going to do” that was the questions from one of my newer loan officers. From the corner of the room we heard Keith one of my old timers yell “rates are going to go up and they are going to go down” and then he laughed. He laughed because he knew my answer.

He was correct too then I follow his mimicking of me with my standard example - “when I was in construction we gave one guarantee on concrete, we guarantee it will creak”. It is the same with rates the one guarantee is that rates will change. They will go up and they will come down.

But right now, today, rates are poised to drop.

With a little luck, and the fed’s keeping their noses out of the market we have a great opportunity for rates to lower.

Why, inflation. With oil settling down and the dollar gaining some traction, inflation looks to be under control. If all this comes to pass then rates should improve.

Keep your fingers crossed.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Mortgage Market Rollercoaster Ride. Thrilling!!!

The mortgage market has been like a rollercoaster this year with huge swings up and down but at the end of the ride you end up exactly where you started.

This week was no exception. We opened the week on the 30 year mortgage backed security bond market at 97.5 and ended the week at 97.875 just 37 basis points higher. But here is what happened during the week, on Wednesday the market moved from 97.5 to 98.625 that’s a whopping 112 basis points. That is huge. Even more remarkable the low for the week was 97.406 and the high was 98.625 that’s a change of 122 basis point. Remember when the bond market raises fixed rate mortgages rates decrease and as the bond market decreases mortgage rates increase.

As you can see just like a rollercoaster we go up, we go down, and end up right where we started.

You are probably wondering what happened to mortgage rates. We started the week with 30 year mortgage rates at 6.875% and ended the week at 6.75%. That’s not much of a movement. The biggest benefit of the swings this week is we broke a very strong resistance level which has turned into an equally strong support level and it keep the bond market from falling even further on Friday.

So stay tune, we may have an even rougher rollercoaster to ride next week.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Freddie and Fannie, what is really going on?

I keep hearing how much trouble mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are in. They are losing billions of dollars and in danger of the going out of business or worse the government taking them over.

I don’t get it.

When we have a loan go into foreclosure at our bank we are required to buy the loan back from Freddie or Fannie. So they lose very little if one of our loans goes bad. As I understand it this is the agreement most lenders have with them.

So if the lender that makes the loan has to buy the loan back Freddie and Fannie don’t lose a dime.

Let assume that 50% of the lenders have this agreement and the other 50% do not (closer to 100% has to buy the loans back). Freddie and Fannie are protected by the lender buy back and by the mortgage insurance.

How much can they be losing on the homes they foreclose on?

I think there is something else going on. Something they are hiding from the rest of us.

I have heard several theories. One is they want their stock value down to buy back the company. Another theory I heard was that they are hiding monstrous fraud. I don’t know what it is but it does appear that something other than foreclosure losses are causing there financial problems.

What is your theory on the mysterious losses Freddie and Fannie seem to be accumulating?

Monday, August 18, 2008

What should Mark and Carol due?

Mark and Carol Doe called me today. They purchased their home several years ago and wanted to talk about getting ready to sell in the next couple of years. Mark told me they would like to sell today but there not in a financial position to do so due to the current housing market.

You see they have outgrown their home. Their two kids are getting bigger and they need more space. So what can they do to prepare for the move when it comes?

Let look at where Mark and Carol were and what they decided to do. Currently their 30 year fixed rate is 5.875% and they have 25 years left on the mortgage. They owe about $246,000 so their principle and interest payment is $1565. In two years they will owe $236,808.

They really have two good options:

Mark and Carol could go with a one year ARM at 4.5%. We keep the mortgage at 25 years and this gave them a principle and interest payment of $1365 per month which gives a savings of $200 per month. Since our closing costs are only $330 they are $2070 ahead after one year.

Then we assumed that the rate would go up to 5.25% in year two which would give them a principle and interest payment of $1461.50 or a savings of $103.50 per month or a savings of $3312 over the two year period.

Additionally, since the payoff on the loan they have currently would be $236,808 and the new loan payoff would be $235,400 they save an additional $1408. This gave Mark and Carol a total savings of $4720 over the two years they plan on being in the home.

A second good option we discussed was a 3/1 ARM at 5.25%. This gave them a fixed rate over the next three years so has a little additional feeling of security which increases the rate.

The principle and interest payment on the 3/1 ARM is $1352.50 the payment is lower because the 3/1 ARM has to be amortized over 30 years. So in this case over the two years they save $4770 after paying the $330 in closing costs. But they will owe $238,900 at the end of the two years so there total savings is $2500.

Mark and Carol decided on the one year ARM feeling the greater savings made up for the lower sense on security.

Do you think Mark and Carol made the correct choice?

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Over Eating and the Mortgage Crisis!

I’m over weight. I keep thinking that I am going to quit eating the foods that are causing the problem. Yes, I could exercise more but what I really need to do is to stop eating donuts, cookies, cakes, and my biggest issue ice cream.

You may remember the first time you tasted a donut, cookie, ice cream, or potato chips. I certainly do. From that moment on I was hooked. I was a junk food addict. I needed my food fix and I didn’t let much get in the way. Even though I swim, bike, or walk and it takes hours to work off one donut I still have to have the donut. I know I shouldn’t. I know it will take an hour of working out to delete the effect of the donut, but I still eat it.

As I look at my eating problem I realize that this is exactly what got the mortgage business in trouble. They got hooked on higher yield and as time went on they wanted higher and higher yield. They forgot to exercise (Risk).

First, mortgage investors including big banks started eating (buying) lower and lower credit scores. Then they allowed stated income with credit scores below 700 and you could be a W2 employee. Finally they would invest in your mortgage even if you were one day out of bankruptcy. Yes, they were hook. They were junkies.

Unlike my weight problem these bad mortgage junkies are being bailed out by our government (which is us). They are taking our tax dollars to try and fix the problem.

This seems like a great thing to me. I eat what I want and then the government (you and I) bail me out. That would be great.

One last thing: Mr. and Ms. Congress, Mr. and Ms. Senate, Mr. President, please send my Junk food Junkie bail out check soon. I’m worried my eating junk food could take down our entire economy if not corrected soon.

Send Help (Money) Fast!!!

Friday, August 15, 2008

You are Losing Thousands of Dollars of Your Home's Equity!

At least that's what the news media would have you believe.

Look at these statistics of the top and bottom Metropolitan Areas for home appreciation ending March 31, 2008, and tell me how bad you think it is:

Top and Bottom Metropolitan Areas in Home Appreciation

------------- One Year------------ Five Year

Top 5...............8.63%..................54.14%

Bottom 5.......-20.65%..................43.19%

Top 10..............6.31%..................44.97%

Bottom 10......-19.95%..................45.36%

Top 20..............6.13%..................39.30%

Bottom 20......-16.65%..................52.03%


Based on these figures you are better off in the bottom markets then the top markets if you've had your home for a few years.

Let’s look at Indiana (where I live) over the last year our homes have appreciated at 2.24% and over the last 5 year we have appreciated 15.09%.

Would the bottom five cities trade places with us over the last 5 years. Never. How about the bottom ten. No way. What about the bottom 20. Absolutely not!

Here is my point, if you're market is down this year, you are still way ahead of much of the US over the last five years. In fact, if you have owned a home in the worst market (Merced, CA) over the last year you are down 24.68% but over the last five years you are still up 35.78% it would take the average home in Indiana over 10 years to see that kind of an increase.

I think we need to keep our heads and realize that appreciation rates of 20% or more per year are not sustainable over the long term and you will see down turns. But if the attributes that powered the high appreciation are still intact (beach, sun, mountains, ocean) then your market will come back and you will better off than then most of the country.

Keep your chin up and be happy. Better days are right around the corner.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Can you finance a home?

If you're like most of us you've heard it's getting hard to finance a home.
We hear that builders are having trouble selling home and part of the reason is problems with financing.

So how hard is it?

If you have good credit scores (over 680), have reasonable debt, have a down payment or equity, an income that supports the mortgage payment, and you have a good job history you will have no problem financing and will receive good terms. However, if you have bad credit below 620, do not have a down payment, and your job history is suspect, you will have problems.

You will also have problems if you are self employed and show little income on your tax returns. It will not matter if you have 850 credit scores. Stated income mortgages are dead.

If you do not have a down payment and cannot finance using FHA you are out of luck. Starting October 1, 2008 the gift program if funded by the seller goes away (Maybe) for FHA. So very soon you will need a minimum of 3.5% down.

What’s the bottom line? Most of us can still finance a home and it is best if you talk with a mortgage professional before you go looking for a home to see what you may need to do to have a smooth closing.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Quit your belly aching.

I have been beating up on lenders in this blog. So today, I am going to make some comments about the borrowers of these bad loans.

Most of you were not deceived. You knew your rate was high, you knew the rate would go up, you knew you had a prepayment penalty, and you did not care. Why, because you wanted the home. You wanted it so bad, that you were willing to accept the bad terms. Because for many of you that was the only way you would qualify for the loan. You didn't even invest any of your own money into the home. And now you want to blame everyone else and act like you didn't know what was going on.

Here is what you expected:

The home to go way up in value.

To make a killing off your home.

You were wrong.

The market quit going up at unrealistic levels, and now you want everyone else to feel sorry for you, and bail you out. I say, admit what you have done and suck it up. Yes, you made some bad decisions, work through them, and move on with your life. This is just a short moment in your life, learn from it.

I believe some of you were deceived. I believe some of you were taken advantage of and I believe most of you are just looking to blame someone else. Because that is what we do here in America.

I will repeat myself. Admit your mistake, work through it, get over it, and move on. You are better then you are acting and if you don't change you could take our whole economy down with you.

For you lenders out there that help cause our current housing and economic problems. I say: Admit your mistake, work through it, get over it, and move on. You are better then you are acting and if you don't change you could take our whole economy down with you.

How about our government they also had a hand in this. I say: Admit your mistake, work through it, get over it, and move on. You are better then you are acting and if you don't change you could take our whole economy down with you.

I pray, God will save us from ourselves.

Have a great day!!!

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

They did it again!

Countrywide faces FTC probe over their mortgage servicing practices.

I have to ask; why are customers still borrowing money from Countrywide? They have proven to be unreliable. This probe shows that they are hard to deal with once you have a mortgage with them. They are losing billions of dollars on foreclosures and yet people keep going to Countrywide for a mortgage. I don't get it.

If you bought a new car and every time you had problems with it you took it to the dealer. But they never fixed it right the first time and most time. Would you continue to take your car to that dealership? Would you buy your next car at that dealership ever if they were a few hundred dollars cheaper? I would think not!

So why do people keep going back to Countrywide or any of the lenders who have proven to be less then honest?

I think we don't fully understand the value of the company servicing our mortgages. Here is my advice: If you are looking for a mortgage call the servicing center, does a real person answer, if not how long does it take to talk with a real person. Are they friendly and interested in you and your problem (Tell them you don't know your account number and want to know your payoff). If they are hard to communicate with then find another lender. I don't care if you think you're getting a lower rate then you can anywhere else.

Don't sell your mortgage soul for a quarter percent in rate.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Stupid Stupid Mortgages

What in the world is going on!

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in trouble.

Too many mortgage companies out of business or in trouble to count. Who could have seen this coming. I saw it coming and I am sure you would have seen it coming to if you were in the mortgage business over the last few years.

Every time I tell someone the type of mortgages that were made back then they are dumbstruck. Why, the two programs below will give you some idea.

What do you think this:

Just tell me your income, I don't need those messy W2's or tax returns, you know they just give you misinformation anyway. We both know you make a lot more money then your tax returns show. As long as you have decent credit and tell me enough income I can finance you. What, you want to borrow $900,000 no problem how much do you make, and remember, you need to give me enough income. Great, $40,000 a month that should do it.

Does that sound like a mortgage you would like to fund out of your savings?

What about this one:

The payments to high, well we have a great program available to you. It is very flexible, you can chose to make one of four payments each month. You can decide to make a payment like its a 30 year fixed, or you can pay like its a 15 year fixed, your third option is to pay interest only, but the best option, and what 96% of all customers do, is make a very low payment that doesn't cover any principle and only covers some of the interest you owe. Some people call it negative amortization but I like to think of it as a way for you to get the home of your dreams. It doesn't really matter that you owe more on the home in a year then you borrowed because your home is going to go up, up, up in value, you're going to be way ahead of the game.

That's what many people were told. I guess being way ahead means bankrupt and the home foreclosed on.

That's not my idea of way ahead.

Here's my advice, if it sounds to go to be true, it probably is. Be smart find an honest trustworthy source for you major financial decision.